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Does RHX avoid the need for Red Hat acquisitions?
May 11, 2007

There seems to be some excitement being generated at the moment about Red Hat’s potential acquisition strategy following the publication of an analyst note by Credit Suisse’s Justin Maynard.

Maynard thinks that Red Hat’s new Exchange applications marketplace could be a good way for the company to test the market for potential acquisitions. While I am sure that it true, I think the same could be said for avoiding a potentially bad investment.

"We think this could be an interesting strategy to determine market demand for complementary open-source technologies and eventually lead to acquisitions," Maynard wrote, according to ZDNet. "We see immediate synergy with two RHX partners: Alfresco for content management and Zimbra for collaboration and messaging," he added.

Larry Dignan picked up the suggestion and ran with it, quoting more from Maynard’s note: "We think investing in RHX is critical because they should be expanding their product footprint into a broader spectrum of product areas like systems management, collaboration, content management, database management, and SOA infrastructure."

Meanwhile Matt Asay also picked up on the suggestion, while diplomatically avoiding mentioning that his employer, Alfresco, was one of the potential targets listed by Maynard.

“Another angle on RHX is that Red Hat could simply be using this to test customer interest and market demand for various products and then acquire the most popular companies. This could be a strategy to eliminate some of the potential product and sales risk since they would be in a position to see where customers find the most value,” he quotes from Maynard’s note.

The last point for me is the crucial one. Yes, Red Hat could use this to see which products generate the most interest from customers, but I am sure the company is already well aware of those statistics.

The interesting thing for me about RHX is the way it eliminates risk, enabling Red Hat to offer integrated software stacks beyond what is possible via a simple integration deal, without needing to acquire technology or companies.

As Asay notes, “the company's reputation exceeds its ability to actually consume multiple acquisitions”. While some companies are naturally aggressive and acquisitive (Oracle) others are more risk-averse.

While it has made purchases, Red Hat fits in the latter category. The JBoss acquisition is the exception, rather than the rule, I would suggest.

(Mixed metaphor alert!). I guess its matter of whether your glass is half full or half empty. On the one hand RHX certainly looks like Red Hat getting its acquisition ducks in a row, on the other it could suggest a company hedging its bets.


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Posted by Matthew Aslett on May 11, 2007 12:59 PM

Comments

I think the subtext in all of this is why would Red Hat consider either Zimbra or Alfresco as an acquisition. Today, Red Hat really doesn't compete much with Microsoft. Red Hat has mostly been about UNIX replacement.

Going forward, it will be impossible to avoid competing with Microsoft. The only way to compete with Microsoft is by taking on its core "lock-in" products: Exchange and Sharepoint. My last job at Novell was analyzing the Sharepoint threat, because Microsoft was using it as a wedge to lever Linux (and other Novell applications) out of these enterprises.

Microsoft will continue to use both technologies to pull enterprises into its closed ecosystem. Having an answer is therefore important.

Having said that, Zimbra has raised a Series C and Alfresco has raised a Series B. It's going to be several years before either company is at a valuation that will be worth cashing out to our investors. (I can't speak for Zimbra but I can say that we are not even remotely exploring exit opportunities - our goal over the next several years is to become a $100M company, and then a $1B company.)

I suspect that it will make more sense for Red Hat to look at MySQL (post IPO). Outsider looking in, it seems that having a killer database in-house would be a winning strategy. Maybe, in fact, Red Hat could put a stick in Oracle's eye by purchasing EnterpriseDB and open sourcing the technology.

Posted by: Matt Asay on May 11, 2007 04:00 PM

All good points - Sharepoint/Exchange is the long-term threat and RH will have to face it at some point, but given the maturity of potential acquisitions and Red Hat's conservatism, I can't see it right now.

A database acquisition would make much more sense at the moment if I am going to speculate, and it would be just RH's style to pick something that needed open sourcing. If it fancies taking on Oracle, EDB would be the weapon to do it with.

Does RH fancy it though?

Posted by: Matthew Aslett on May 11, 2007 04:12 PM

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