Open Source Blog

“Microsoft's client operating system anti-piracy efforts will backfire. Microsoft's anti-piracy campaign will drive customers toward Linux,” predicts the research firm, placing it ninth on its list of the Top 10 Predictions for Worldwide System Infrastructure Software, 2007.

It’s not clear whether this prediction is considered more or less likely to come true than its tenth prediction, but that is equally interesting:

“Our expectations remain consistent that Windows Vista in 2007 will not uplift the operating system or PC market spend dramatically, but we are predicting a meaningful shift of adoption favoring premium Windows Vista SKUs.”

Compare that with this statement from the Microsoft-backed “Economic Impact of Microsoft Windows Vista in the United States“ report from IDC.

“Windows Vista's impact on the market will reach far beyond Microsoft, driving revenues and growth for many of the 1 million IT companies worldwide that sell hardware, write software, provide IT services, or serve as IT distribution channels.”

That report suggested that Vista will create 100,000 new jobs in the US, driving $70bn in revenues for the IT industry in 2007. Quite how it will do that when IDC also believes it will “not uplift the operating system or PC market spend dramatically” is open to question.

Meanwhile, IDC also made another prediction related to Linux:

“The use of Linux paravirtualization will be mostly sizzle - not steak. Few users are going to substitute their current kernel with a paravirtualized kernel.”

I’m not sure what this is supposed to mean however – do IDC really expect users to make changes to the Linux kernel rather than just make use of the functionality their distributors provide them with?