Jason Stamper's Blog: September 2005 Archives

Google Office Still in the Wings?
September 30, 2005

Ajax Office, a proposed project to create an open source, web-based suite of office applications, has fallen by the wayside. But the project's founder Paolo Massa is convinced that not only will there be successful open source projects in the space, but that it is only a matter of time before the likes of Google or Yahoo! launch a web-based office suite of their own - going up against Microsoft Office but in the online sphere.

Massa, a PhD student at the International Graduate School in Information and Communication Technologies at the University of Trento, Italy, had sought collaboration on a project he named Ajax Office and hosted at open source community sourceforge.net. He said his goal was to create, "A complete office suite usable via your browser. Your documents are safely stored on a server so that you don't have to worry about backups and you can access them from every computer in the world."

Sadly his studies have taken up too much of his time to pursue the project, and he has subsequently decided to leave the idea in the hands of a number of other projects and enterprises in the web-based office applications space, like the Zimbra Server for online email and personal information management (PIM); and gOFFICE, a fully browser-based word processor.

Last month CBROnline reported the rumour that Google might come out with a web-based office suite of its own. Since then there has been no further news to substantiate the rumour and the company has stayed mum, but nevertheless speculation has been growing that Google may well be looking at the prospect of a web-based office suite.

According to Massa, it is only a matter of time before a big name comes up with a web-based office suite to compete with Microsoft Office: "If you think about it, it would mean having access to your office documents from any browser," he told CBR, outlining his view that a provider could enable the creation and storage of office documents on their web servers. "I think someone will do this within a year," he said. "The business model is still not completely clear, but someone will do it."

Massa said that he had plenty of correspondence about his Ajax Office project, but: "With my thesis to finish by the end of December, I just haven't time to devote to it any more. But there are lots of exciting projects in the web-based office applications space that look really impressive already."

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Posted by on 09:04 AM

Palm, Microsoft Gang Up for New Treo
September 27, 2005

For the first time Palm announced it will be putting Microsoft's Windows Mobile 5.0 operating system on its 3G-enabled Treo handheld.

The news reflects not only Microsoft's increasingly powerful role in the mobile operating system space - a space at one time owned by Symbian, Wind River, Palmsource et al - but also the growing competition in the wireless email and web segment where RIM, Intellisync and Extended Systems have been making hay.

Under the three-way deal announced yesterday, Verizon Wireless will start selling a Windows-based Palm device for use on its EVDO network in the United States. It will be Palm’s first 3G-enabled Treo.

“In our view, every professional will have a phone that connects up to their email,” said Microsoft's Gates. “They'll have a phone that works super well with Exchange and Outlook and all of Microsoft Office.”

The ActiveSync features of Windows Mobile 5.0 allow phone-Outlook synchronization and, when used with Exchange 2003 Service Pack 2, push email along the same lines of systems offered by RIM and Intellisync.

“Verizon… is going to have period of exclusivity on this product,” Palm CEO Ed Colligan said. “We certainly intend to bring it to other networks and other network technologies over time, but it will be some time into the middle of next year before that happens.”

Colligan said Palm will continue to sell existing Treos that run the Palm OS, developed by PalmSource, formerly a unit of Palm, but he didn’t sound very enthusiastic about it. “It's really not a major change to that relationship,” he said.

“Sure there’ll be some cannibalisation [of Palm OS sales],” he added later. “There will be people who will want to move to this platform. No question about that. But I think it expands the market too. I think it gets more people seeing Treos who want to use this type of functionality.”

Intellisync, meanwhile, currently provides the email software that underlies Verizon’s consumer email services, and the company insists that this will still be available, even recommended, under Verizon’s forthcoming Windows-based service.

But when Microsoft launched Windows Mobile 5.0 earlier this summer, it said its focus on developers and the fact that millions are already familiar with the Windows interface would be the keys to the software’s eventual dominance. Going on yesterday's news, it could just be right.

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Posted by on 08:44 AM

Don't pocket your iPod nano*
September 26, 2005

* unless it's in a hard case

"Is that a broken iPod nano in your pocket, or are you only half-pleased to see me?"

So far the evidence is fairly anecdotal but more and more iPod nano purchasers are coming forward to say their shiny new iPod nanos are what they are cracked up to be - literally. Many say that the screens on the new portable music players scratch too easily, while a few claim that the LCD screens have inexplicably cracked while the player's been in their pocket.

Flawedmusicplayer.com is leading the investigation, and predictably the site appears to be attracting comments not only from those who have experienced similar problems but also from those who simply don't like it when someone criticizes their beloved Apple - or even just one their products, because the author of flawedmusicplayer.com says he's a big fan of the company's other gadgets.

Apple is staying mum on the subject, and refusing to reimburse at least some of those who claim their nano screen inexplicably cracked while the gizmo was in their pockets. But it seems entirely feasible that with the nano coming in at just 0.27" wide the screen area is a weak point in the overall torsional rigidity of the device when stressed longitudinally (OK, so I was useless at science).

Whether or not the little fellas crack quite as easily as some are complaining they are wont to is still unclear. In the mean time you might want to put it in a case if you've bought one already (sadly spoiling that slim lateral profile), or if you haven't, consider something sturdier if you plan on putting it in your pocket commando-style and doing anything other than standing serenely in your bedroom and swaying along to Dido. Nice.

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Posted by on 09:21 AM

String of Tech Acquisitions Leave Few Raised Eyebrows
September 20, 2005

Of the recent string of tech company acquisitions - Oracle's takeover of Siebel, eBay's acquisition of Skype and HP's Peregrine buy - none are hugely surprising. Siebel has looked vulnerable for some time as it has faced ever-stronger competition from a raft of hosted CRM players, notably salesforce.com but also RightNow, salesnet and others. Besides, there isn't the same appetite for big-ticket, enterprise-wide CRM projects today that originally brought Siebel its success.

Skype had been rumoured to be an acquisition target for some time, as it had grown very popular very fast but lacked the deep pockets it needs for its next stage of expansion (it could have considered an IPO but the market for IPOs could be better). Possible acquirers could have either been more traditional carriers like Verizon or BT looking to boost their VoIP market share - though that would have been a very brave move as it would surely have meant risking the cannibalisation of their existing voice revenues - or the big and wealthy dot-coms like Google, eBay or even Amazon. [Image: Skype founder and CEO Niklas Zennstrom.]

The biggest surprise, in fact, is the price Skype managed to attract from eBay - $2.6bn up-front with potential for a further $1.5bn in performance-related earn-outs. Skype generated just $7m in revenues in 2004, and the company anticipates that it will generate just $60m in revenues in 2005. It may have 54 million members in 225 countries and territories, and be adding 150,000 users a day, but most of those users use the service for free. The hope that it will be able to turn more of those users into revenue - revenue that makes the $3bn-plus price tag worthwhile - is a very big gamble indeed on eBay's part.

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Posted by on 09:00 AM

HP Buys Peregrine: Not So Unpredictable
September 19, 2005

News that HP is to acquire infrastructure management player Peregrine Systems is less than surprising, not least because Peregrine's CEO John Mutch gave strong hints that he was looking for an exit for the company when I interviewed him in April this year.

As I wrote in our sister publication ComputerWire at the time: "The question must be asked whether infrastructure management is a big enough niche to support a company the size of Peregrine. As Mutch put it, 'It would be disingenuous to say that an HP or an IBM might not look at us and say 'you are now a great $200m company' and think about acquiring us. We're a public company'." [Image: Peregrine CEO John Mutch]

But with or without the CEO's hint at an acquisition, Peregrine had looked a likely acquisition target since it was rocked by an accounting scandal back in 2002. While Mutch had done a lot to restore confidence in the company and focus on its core strengths, he was only too aware of the damage that the accounting scandal had done to Peregrine's brand.

What's more, he had still not been able to get the company back into the black. For the 12 months ended March 31 2005 Peregrine reported sales of $191m, but a net loss of $25.4m.

On top of that, it had looked more and more likely that infrastructure management software would ultimately be simply rolled into broader systems management suites. That's exactly what HP has now done, saying it will integrate Peregrine's IT and asset management software into its OpenView business unit, as it puts it: "to create the industry’s most comprehensive distributed enterprise management software solution."

Good news perhaps for existing HP and Peregrine customers: HP's get a broader offering from a single vendor, while Peregrine's get the assurance of being part of HP - that worry over Peregrine's finances had not faded. Not such good news, one would suspect, for at least some Peregrine staff, as HP's CEO Mark Hurd will quickly want to get the business into profitability.

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Posted by on 08:24 AM

Oracle, Siebel Questions Abound
September 14, 2005

By CBR Ebusiness Consulting Editor Angela Eager (Jason Stamper is on vacation)

The only thing that was surprising about the proposed Oracle-Siebel deal was the timing; in that there was no apparent reason for the announcement to come out now, especially with Oracle due to host its user conference in San Francisco next week.

However, expectation has done nothing to reduce the number of questions swirling around what it means for Oracle, Siebel, their respective customers and the CRM industry as a whole.

The fall of the CRM market founder is the clearest indication yet that the CRM market has undergone fundamental change and that the old guard is being replaced. It also cuts the enterprise CRM market down to major two vendors, Oracle and SAP.

While the deal gives Oracle a CRM boost and is expected to give Oracle and SAP level pegging in the CRM market share stakes this year, with 15% each according to AMR Research, even their size is no guarantee of future success as both are under pressure from on-demand vendors such as Salesforce.com.

That the new model is a threat was evident when SAP admitted recently that it was planning a hosted CRM service this year and with Oracle apparently planning to put more emphasis on its hosted CRM option at its imminent user conference. Microsoft’s about face on on-demand CRM last week was also testament to its rising position.

Predictably, Salesforce.com CEO Marc Benioff greeted the news with enthusiasm saying it would create new opportunities for Salesforce.com. "Oracle put Siebel investors out of their misery today," he said. "We have been doing that for Siebel customers for years. Client/server software is being consolidated by Oracle just as mainframe software was consolidated by Computer Associates."

"Oracle's strategy is simple," Benioff said. "Instead of innovating, buy as much installed software as possible, call it all Oracle Fusion, and make sure it all uses Oracle's database. Now, the same thing that happened to PeopleSoft will happen to Siebel, it will die.”

Benioff asserted that the industry would not remember Siebel, that it will be a bygone name and brand as Oracle milks the revenue from its 4,000-strong customer base.

While reports of Siebel’s complete and utter demise are premature, there are major issues for the existing customer base. But at the same time there is no reason to panic. Oracle plans to support Siebel for the foreseeable future and its treatment of the PeopleSoft customer base indicates that it has sufficient understanding of user concerns and is unlikely to take radical action to further unsettle what will become an important revenue stream.

Although, ultimately, it will incorporate Siebel CRM into Fusion, it also plans to continue selling the suite via a dedicated sales force, at least initially, and it will safeguard the Siebel offering because Oracle also plans to make it the centre of its CRM strategy. It makes perfect sense because Siebel’s CRM functionality is superior to Oracle’s.

However, while that might be good news for Siebel customers, it raises questions for former PeopleSoft CRM customers - who could be using CRM functionality from Vantive, PeopleSoft’s newer model or JD Edwards’s You Centric-based CRM software - because these could be sidelined as well as those Oracle customers who have opted for Oracle CRM.

Oracle says it also plans to continue developing Siebel’s on demand product. That makes sense on one level because Oracle’s hosted offering has never taken off and only has 200 or so customers while Siebel On Demand is the fastest growing area of Siebel’s business. However, it is also written in IBM DB/2, uses IBM’s WebSphere platform and is hosted in IBM data centres. Given that Oracle is battling with IBM in the database and middleware spheres there is a question over whether this objective is achievable.

Although Oracle says its relationship with IBM has improved since the acquisition of PeopleSoft, whose technology was also IBM-centric and who was effectively IBM’s largest ISV, it is difficult to see how it can continue especially as Fusion is all about moving Oracle’s diverse applications onto its infrastructure stack.

A key issue for Oracle and its customers is just how well it will manage the integration and redevelopment of the Siebel product line along with its other home grown and acquired products. It is a huge challenge. For CRM alone there are seven code bases to contend with.

Outside the CRM arena there are also additional code bases to add to the mix as a result of other acquisitions such as the Retek buy. Far from settling, the dust is still rising from the news about Siebel.

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Posted by on 08:46 AM

CBRonline Scoops Outstanding Award
September 13, 2005

By CBR Deputy Editor Matthew Aslett (Jason Stamper is on vacation)

CBR is honoured to announce that its www.cbronline.com website has been recognized with an Outstanding Website WebAward in the 2005 WebAward Competition, produced by the Web Marketing Association.

Now in its 9th year, the WebAwards judge website development against an ever increasing Internet standard and against peer sites within their industry and recognizes the individual and team achievement of web professionals who create and maintain outstanding corporate web sites.

Details of the judging process and this year's winners can be found at www.webaward.org.

CBR was particularly pleased to note that efforts to introduce new features and additional content had been recognised. Among the comments made by judges during a review of www.cbronline.com were: "Excellent site. Nice use of technology- RSS is a nice and appropriate feature", and "Tons of content laid out really well. Good use of tech".

CBR is not standing still, however, and a host of new features are being introduced to the site, which is constantly updated to bring you all the latest technology news, analysis, and research. To make sure you keep up to date with the latest developments keep coming back to www.cbronline.com.

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Posted by on 07:49 AM

Analyst Criticism Highlights Novell's Transitional Problems
September 09, 2005

By CBR Deputy Editor Matthew Aslett (Jason Stamper is on vacation)

Financial analyst house Credit Suisse First Boston this week took a swipe at Linux and identity management vendor Novell, calling for the company's board to make major changes if it is to make the most of its investment in open source.

Analyst critiques of company strategy are not unusual but CSFB analyst Jason Maynard's message to Novell's leadership was particularly savage. "Novell has the necessary resources to be a much more profitable enterprise but it currently lacks the vision, strategy, and execution to produce respectable returns," he wrote.

Maynard went on to suggest that the company focus on software services rather than consulting, increase its emphasis on open source software, repurchase company stock, and bring in new management.

That the company is in the midst of some transitional problems is undeniable. Novell's CEO, Jack Messman, admitted as much as he revealed disappointing results for the company's most recent third quarter, with revenue of $290m, down 5% from the prior year's quarter. New software license sales were $45.6m, down 20%, and maintenance and services sales came to $244.6m, down 1.2%.

"Novell continues to be a company in transition," explained Messman, adding that the "complex transformations" that Novell was undertaking in its product lines as well as in its sales force, reseller channel, and ISV partnerships were making things tough for the company.

What appears to be frustrating for CSFB, which is a minority Novell shareholder, is the length of time the transition is taking. When Novell acquired SUSE, as well as Ximian, the talk was of rejuvenation: "Novell, back from the dead", noted Merrill Lynch at the time.

While Novell's NetWare business had been in decline for some time, it possessed the operating system and system software skills and resources to drive growth for SUSE that could increase Linux's challenge to Microsoft.

Novell's progress since then has been slow however, and it is yet to pose a major challenge to Linux rival Red Hat, let alone Microsoft. Linux subscription levels have been disappointing for the company in recent quarters, although 28,000 in the third quarter was an improvement on 19,000 in the second quarter, and 21,000 in both the first quarter and fourth quarter of 2004.

In comparison, Red Hat announced 190,000 new and renewed Red Hat subscriptions in its recently completed first quarter, up from 175,000 in the forth quarter, driving a sizeable revenue lead over Novell that Red Hat CEO, Matthew Szulik, was eager to put into perspective.

"We estimate that our international enterprise subscription revenue was more than twice the entire worldwide subscription revenue of our closest Linux competitor," he said during Red Hat's fourth quarter conference call. "In fact, our subscription revenue from EMEA alone was larger than the reported worldwide subscription revenue of the same number two Linux provider," he added.

So does Novell have a management problem? It has certainly lost some high profile people. Chief technology officer, Alan Nugent, left for CA in March, following Chris Stone, former vice chairman of the office of the chief executive, who left Novell in November 2004. Former SUSE CEO, Richard Seibt, left in May.

The latter move coincided with the appointment of Ron Hovsepian, who had been president of Novell's North American unit, as executive vice president of the company. Hovsepian, who is widely expected to eventually take the reins of Novell from Messman, was given full charge of all the presidents in charge of Novell's operating units.

Messman, in making the announcement of Hovsepian's appointment, said that Hovsepian had demonstrated the ability to streamline Novell's operations, deliver solid financial results, and stay focused on the customer: just the kind of actions Novell needs to be demonstrating if the likes of CSFB are to be placated.

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Posted by on 04:53 AM

Google Has Microsoft Rattled
September 06, 2005

By CBR Deputy Editor Matthew Aslett (Jason Stamper is on vacation)

While the 'flowery' language used by Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer to respond to the news that another of the company's charges was planning to leave the company to join Google has inevitably hogged the headlines over the weekend, the really interesting thing about the story is that it indicates just how rattled Microsoft is by the search firm.

The legal battle over Google's attempt to hire former Microsoft VP Kai-Fu Lee to head Google’s new product research and development center in China had already indicated a level of animosity between the two companies, but Ballmer's apparent response to the resignation of former Microsoft engineer, Mark Locovsky, suggests just how much Google has got under Microsoft's skin.

According to the sworn evidence of Locovsky, when Ballmer learned that Locovsky was to leave Microsoft after six years to take a job at Google his response was to pick up a chair and throw it across the room, before launching a foul mouthed tirade against the search firm and its chief executive, Eric Schmidt.

"F___ing Eric Schmidt is a f___ing pussy," Ballmer is alleged to have said. "I'm going to f___ing bury that guy, I have done it before, and I will do it again. I am going to f___ing kill Google."

While Ballmer has issued a statement describing the account as "a gross exaggeration" and "not accurate", the image of Ballmer raging about the former Novell and Sun executive will be difficult to shake and is all the more believable given Ballmer's declaration that Microsoft was "hell bent and determined" to challenge Google for search engine leadership as long ago as September 2004.

While search and related services are the core battleground between Google and Microsoft, these are fast growing but peripheral activities for the world's largest software vendor, and it is perhaps the potential threat that Google poses to Microsoft that explains why it has become such a thorn in the side of the software giant.

With its desktop search, email, blog, and photo editing software, Google is increasingly encroaching on users' desktops, previously the almost exclusive domain of Microsoft. Additionally Adam Bosworth, Google VP of engineering (and Microsoft's former senior and general manager) has spoken in glowing terms in the past about the browser-based software-as-a-service model championed by the likes of Salesforce.com.

Among the rumors that constantly fly around the Internet is the thought that Google might one day increase its ubiquity to the point where it could launch its own browser, or even a web-based suite of office applications as a challenge to Microsoft Office.

It's an interesting notion, and one that has increasing potential the more you think about it. While there are a significant number of Office users that need the advanced functionality of Word or Excel for work, for the vast majority of consumer users that functionality goes largely unused.

Could Google, by providing a web-based text editing interface and a place to store files and access them from anywhere in the world via a browser, grab some of Microsoft's massive office applications market share?

At the moment rumors of Google Office are just that - rumors - but the potential is clearly there, and that potential might just be enough to explain why Microsoft is apparently so rattled by the search firm.

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Posted by on 05:17 AM